Why Are Brazilians Flocking to the US? A Comprehensive Analysis

OMG, like when the environment changes for good and messes up where people live, it's like sooo not cool. 

 Sea-level rise and super hot weather can totally force people to move. But, like, it's super rare for this kinda thing to happen in crowded places, so we couldn't really figure out how people usually act in this situation, ya know? The tea on climate change's impact on pop and econ growth Yo, mad studies have been tryna predict how migration gonna go down when climate and the environment start changin'. A recent report by the World Bank like totally calculated how many peeps gonna bounce cuz of the environment by 2050, and it's like somewhere between 92 and 143 million, fam (Kumari Rigaud et al. 2018). The geographical areas more lit in these estimated figures are like from sub-Saharan Africa (~60%), South Asia (~28%), and South America (~12%). 

BTW, the study says that if we like, totally implement ways to deal with climate change and stuff, along with being prepared for disasters, we could like, reduce the numbers by, like, a third. The vibes of the projected migration flows totally confirm its internal or regional nature, like, in line with the legit empirical evidence collected so far (Mercandalli and Losch 2017). Yo, it's mad important to peep that these estimates are based on models that, like, barely have enough data to show how environmental stuff connects to people moving around. The major flex for this kind of analyses lies in fact in the unavailability of spatially and temporally detailed migration flow data, fam. Climate dynamics are like, super intricate in time and space, while human migration stats are usually given for each country and like, on a yearly or multi-year basis. 

Yo, like, climate and other environmental stuff have mad impacts, ya know?

 

And these impacts are hella location specific, so we gotta analyze them in the context of the mix of natural and economic systems, fam. So like, in this chapter we're not even gonna try to put a number on how many peeps are gonna bounce to a new place to deal with climate change, ya know? Instead, we peep the latest projections of future population that are expected to be exposed to future climate threats. Although these aren't really a vibe for migration flows, like, quantifying the trends of populations at risk could give us a sense of the trends of individuals or communities that might be down to migrate as an adaptation move.
So like, we were all about that goal, and we used the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) projections of population (Riahi et al. 2017) that were like just proposed by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). The SSP scenarios are like, these projections about society and stuff, like population, GDP, and the whole built environment, you know? They were made by the IPCC to study what could happen with greenhouse gas emissions in the future, like for the next gen of climate projections. Pretty cool, right? These data are like the foundation for the conclusion of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, expected by 2022, ya know? The SSP projections are like, totally available at country level, fam. In order to get that juicy spatially explicit info, we used the downscaled data proposed by the Global Carbon Project (Murakami and Yamagata 2016). he already sus low and lower middle income countries in the Northern, Eastern, and Western Africa, Southern, and South- Eastern Asia are about to see a major increase in the exposure to climate threats. Central and South America and Southern Europe are like totally gonna be more exposed to climate extremes, but like not as much as other places.

Yo, to keep it real with the analysis of climate threats, we went with the most pessimistic scenario, which is number 3 'Fragmentation' (Figure 21). 

This scenario assumes slow economic growth and a low development rate61. Yeet! OMG, like, the African continent, Latin America, and the South Asian region are gonna be poppin' with high population growth, while the richest countries in Europe and North America might see a lil' decrease in population. We like totally mixed all this info with like projected signs of slow-onset climate stress, like heat wave (measured by the Heat Wave Magnitude Index - HWMId) and drought conditions (measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index - SPEI) made by the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) project (Dosio et al. 2018; Naumann et al. 2018) 62. The OG projections made using 7 diff climate model were averaged and stratified according to the magnitude level (Figure 22). Both socio and climate projections are like totally available at high spatial res (0.5 degree cells, that's like 55km). 
OMG, like, based on our research in figures 23-26, the places where the population and extreme events are gonna blow up in the next few decades are: Northern, Eastern, and Western Africa, Middle Africa is like gonna be more about heatwaves than droughts; Southern and Eastern Asia gonna be hit hard by droughts, while the South-Eastern and Western Asian regions gonna be all about heatwaves; Central and South America and Southern Europe gonna see more people dealing with extreme climate stuff. T