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Whatever the case, Russia has attempted to gain as much influence as possible. Russia's most powerful instrument is energy, which has been used efficiently over the past three decades. Germany is particularly exposed to this problem. Years of deliberate decisions about the country's energy mix have left it heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies for electricity, heating, and industry. While Berlin has pledged to phase out Russian energy sources by 2025, the supply situation for the upcoming winter is perilous, and record prices endanger Germany's economic and political stability.Russia's incentive to sabotage the Nord Stream pipelines may appear paradoxical, but it is certainly consistent with this plan. First, the demolition of Nord Stream does not prevent Russian gas from reaching Europe. There is still sufficient capacity between the other pipelines; no gas has gone via Nord Stream since the end of August. Rather, its destruction limits Europe's options, which benefits Putin. Russia has also threatened to cut gas pipelines via Ukraine due to a legal disagreement. European gas storage facilities are already preparing for the winter, making it an excellent opportunity to instigate an artificial supply crisis, forcing governments to tap into these supplies prematurely. This may contribute to increased shortages in the winter months, forcing prices further higher and boosting Russia's influence.

This reduces Europe's overall flexibility

Some of the existing pipeline capacity is currently being used eastward to feed Poland and Ukraine. By limiting Nord Stream, much of the remaining capacity must be dedicated to westward supplies to ensure that western European countries can meet their energy needs over the winter. This will further isolate Ukraine, harming its economy and fighting spirit while undermining European unity. It also sends an implicit signal to European policymakers that Russia may strike important infrastructure in the future, forcing them to withdraw their support for Ukraine.The plausible deniability of the strike is consistent with Russian intelligence services' activities, which range from assassinations to cyber warfare. While the intended recipients clearly understand the message communicated, pro-Russian voices in the West can exploit it to bolster their subversive efforts, such as Tucker Carlson's assertion that the Biden administration was behind the pipeline assaults, which was based on a loose interpretation of a prior speech.Even more disturbing has been the frequent and premature mention of the possibility of using nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory. Such warnings appear hollow in practice. Ukrainian forces have frequently hit in depth against targets in Millerovo, Belgorod, and Crimea, all of which Russia considers to be part of its territory, with no notable increase in reaction. However, the threatening rhetoric has a special resonance in German politics, given the country's antipathy to nuclear power and weaponry, particularly among the ruling coalition. The blatant threats and violence around Zaporizhzhia's nuclear power plants can be interpreted as an attempt to coerce and cow the German people into submission.

We must be realistic about the chances of this new Russian strategy

it is far from a winning hand. Putin has made a lot of significant assumptions and bet heavily on them after drastically misjudging Ukraine and the West's capabilities to oppose this invasion. To succeed, Russia must reverse German, European, and Ukrainian policies while also containing domestic discontent caused by punishing sanctions and an unpopular military deployment.While Putin's odds of successfully executing this gamble are modest, the West must not become comfortable; it must adapt. Certainly, it cannot compete with Putin's bare-knuckled realpolitik, but should instead rely on their natural strengths in this conflict — namely, overwhelming economic and military power, free and open societies that are strongly motivated to support Ukraine, and the ability to develop creative solutions to difficult problems.If Europe can get through this winter while maintaining or even increasing its support for Ukraine, it will be in a far stronger position to see the war through to its finish.Today is the second National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, a day set aside to honor survivors and deceased children of Indian residential schools, their families, and communities, as well as to assure public recognition of the history and ongoing legacy of residential schools.Many questioned the necessity to celebrate today as a federal statutory holiday when it was first introduced last year, with concerns about whether the day would be respected and observed with reflection and atonement, or if it would be treated flippantly as a "day off". We saw a somewhat typical response.

consistent with other national holidays

some went about their day without much thought, some recognized the intent of the day but did not support making it a national holiday, and others supported the national holiday but skipped commemoration, ceremonial, or learning activities in favor of a long weekend trip.Curious, I used a search engine to see the top queries relating to the day this year. I was relieved to discover that no one was wondering "what" the day is in the top searches. It appears that many, if not the majority, understand what the day is for. However, somewhat inevitably, there were numerous linked searches about how to become involved.When discussing the search results with friends, one of them stated clearly: "Honestly, and maybe I'm just an idiot, but one of the main questions for someone like me is how should I properly and respectfully mark the day, and in a tangible way—especially in comparison to National Indigenous Peoples Day?"I can understand the confusion.