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Strategic Insights Business Recovery in the USA and Canada

If media reports are to be believed, Canadians look to be a particularly unhappy lot right now. The recent bout of inflation and interest rate rises appear to have precipitated a specific phase of economic suffering that has spilled over into personal lives, and that misery appears to be uniform across demographic and socioeconomic categories. According to one survey, financial troubles, inflation, and high interest rates are having an impact on Canadians' mental health, driving concern about housing and food.  Millennials, particularly those who own a home, appear to be the most vulnerable to economic downturns as interest rates rise on tight debt burdens and economic damage wreaks havoc on the economy and expectations. Burdened by debt and rising housing expenses, three-in-ten Canadians are "struggling" to make ends meet, with mortgage holders reporting trouble meeting housing bills up 11% from last June. If you have a place to live, you struggle to pay your bills, and
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The Future of Economic Recovery USA and Canadian Businesses

Three "Ds": deglobalization, decarbonization, and demography make up "The 3D Reset". We think that these present trends have had and will still have major long-term effects on the world economy. The 3Ds taken together are changing the investing scene. Predicting what happens next and where opportunities lie depends on an awareness of the three Ds: how they impact the global economy, what this means for market volatility, and how active investors should deploy their assets.

The Canadian economy is running above forecasts. Canada has avoided the recession many had projected despite rising interest rates.

From its highest level of 8.1% in June 2022 to 2.9% in January and 2.8% in February 2024 inflation has dropped. The labor market stays constant. Indicating the fastest job recovery among the G7, approximately 1.1 million more Canadians are working today than in pre- crisis times (Chart 1). Real wages—wages adjusted for inflation have grown, suggesting that, generally, Canadians have more buying power. With statistics from Statistics Canada showing that real GDP at basic prices rose by 0.6% in January (7.4% annualized) and preliminary estimates pointing to 0.4% increase in February (4.9% annualized), implying that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be roughly 3.5%. Forecasts of the private sector indicate notable advancement in the next year. By the end of the year, they project economic growth accelerating; interest rates will drop; inflation will drop to about 2%. By 2025, both the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project Canada to have the fastest G7 economic growth. Simultaneously, Canadians deal with challenges as some of the most important expenses of living food and housin remain high. Too many Canadians find their efforts going unpackled. Not left behind by our government will be We help younger Canadians who worry they may not have the same level of quality of living as past generations. Rising to top baby boomers in July 2023, millennials now are the largest group of Canadians. The success of millennials in the workforce helps Canada generally. Improving innovation and productivity will help us to assure their success by increasing salaries and generating more outstanding employment, therefore enabling Canada's economy to reach its full capacity.

Affordable child care across Canada, home creation, continuous investments such the Canada Child Benefit, and increased benefits and pensions for seniors help to make life more affordable for Canadians and increase access to housing.

Already showing benefits are investments in economic development and competitiveness: In the first three quarters of 2023, Canada drew the greatest per capita foreign direct investment in the G7 (Chart 2). Rising dangers to the world economy call for careful financial and budgetary control. Many countries have strong inflation, hence it is unclear how rapidly interest rates could be lowered. Global conflicts including Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and continuous insurgent strikes on Red Sea shipping channels endanger commodity prices and world supply systems. While safeguarding Canada's long-term budgetary viability and keeping the lowest net debt and deficit-to-- GDP ratios among the G7 nations, the federal government is helping citizens. The government is striving to increase the capacity of the Canadian economy to offer fresh prospects for the present as well as the next generations. The government is striving to build the middle class, increase Canadians' wages, and produce outstanding job opportunities. Ensuring Canada's competitiveness as a corporate destination, the government is dedicated to fostering productivity development and the acceptance of clean technologies and artificial intelligence (AI), hence opening prospects for next generations. These are the next steps toward building an economy today and going forward that suits everyone.

Current Economic Events Canada's economy is exceeding projections.

The Canadian economy is doing better than first projected. Notwithstanding fast and significant interest rate rises to help to control inflation, growth has slowed but deviates from expectations in 2023. With real GDP rising by 1.1% in 2023, more than three times the 0.3% projected in Budget 2023, Canada avoided the recession expected by many estimates (Chart The Canadian economy is exploding. Notwithstanding some transient obstacles, including Quebec public sector strikes in late 2023, real GDP grew by 1% on an annualized level in the fourth quarter driven by strong global demand for Canadian exports and healthy local demand for goods and services. Economic forecasts for 2024 are so rather positive. The unwinding of transient events gave the economy a boost that produced strong real GDP gains in January (7.4% annualized) and preliminary February (4.9% annualized). This projects a first quarter of 2024 growth rate of around 3.5% yearly. Furthermore improving in recent months are household and small business morale. The robust economic foundations of Canada have enabled the country to withstand the consequences of growing interest rates. These solid foundations comprise healthy family and business financial sheets as well as strong labor markets, which are driving workers' ongoing income increase. Furthermore helping Canada's better-than-expected success is the astonishing resilience of the US economy (Chart 4). Strong external demand for Canadian goods and services as well as foreign direct investment in Canada, which has greatly helped the Canadian economy over the past year, reflect the significantly higher than expected growth in the United States.

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